I can’t think of another Game 3 in the 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs that will have as many eyes on the one we’re about to see this Saturday at Madison Square Garden between the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks.
Yes, it’s Boston vs New York (one of the most heated rivalries in all of sports). Yes, it’s a Saturday matinee game in the Mecca where the ticket prices look closer to Super Bowl ticket prices than a Game 3 in the 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs. But the primary reason we’ll likely see record viewership numbers on Saturday is because of what has happened in the first 2 games of the series.

The defending NBA Champs, the Boston Celtics, came into the series as heavy favorites despite it being a 2 vs 3 matchup. Boston went 4-0 against New York through the regular season with an average margin of victory of over 16 points per game. The Knicks had a 0-10 record against the league’s top 3 teams (Boston, Cleveland and OKC) through the year, and were seemingly a notch below the league’s elite.
And despite coming into Games 1 and 2 as 9+ point favorites on their home floor in both games, the Celtics find themselves down 0-2 as they head to New York Saturday for Game 3. However, it’s the style in which they have lost both games that has everyone talking. Never before has a team squandered two second half 20 point leads in an NBA series. In fact, the Celtics held a 98% chance to win both games during the 4th quarter, and managed to squander both games away.
The Celtics, who have shot (and made) a historic amount of 3-pointers this season, came out and had their 2 worst shooting performances of the season, shooting it at 35.1% in Game 1 and 36.2% in Game 2, a wild statistical coincidence. But this is particularly improbable given the Knicks have allowed their opponents to shoot at 47.4% in the regular season (which ranks towards the bottom at 25th in the league). Furthermore, during the 4 games the Celtics beat the Knicks during the regular season, they scored on average 125 ppg, shot it at 50% from the field (and 43.5% from 3), but during the first two games in this series they’ve only averaged 97.5 ppg, while shooting it at 35.6% from the field (and 25% from 3).
Now normally, when a team loses their first two games at home in a best of 7 series, you say “game, set, match”. Only 5 teams have come back in the history of the league in those situations, which equates to 7.3%. With that said, Vegas has this series’ at even money, with the Celtics being 5 point favorites on the road in Game 3. Part of that is because the Boston Celtics have the best road record in the NBA at 33-8, which is 5 games better than their 28-13 home record. Furthermore, when trailing in playoff series in the 21-22 and 22-23 playoffs, they are 10-1. Quite simply, when they go down, they have responded extremely well in recent history.
Beyond all the analytical improbabilities of these first two games, there seems to be a fascinating element of sport psychology going on as well. The Celtics have gone ice cold in the 4th quarter, scoring a combined 33 points in the 4th quarter in their first two games. Their two best players, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, have gone ice-cold in key moments, earning severe criticism for settling for outside shots rather than driving to the hoop. Meanwhile, on the flip side, Jalen Brunson for New York, has earned a reputation as being the best “closer” in the league, with his uncanny clutch shots.
Boston had all the pressure coming into this series, being the favorites trying to repeat as NBA Champions, while facing a looming roster breakup due to financial realities this off-season. That pressure has seemingly impacted their performance specifically in the 4th quarters of the first two games. While the pressure to win Game 3 for the Celtics is high, the Knicks know if they drop this next one, the momentum will quickly shift.
Between the analytics, the psychology, and the heated rivalry, this Game 3 has all the makings of an instant classic.

























